AUD/JPY hourly chart
Additional important levels:
Today Last Price: 79.09
Today Daily change: 12 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.15%
Today Daily Open: 78.97
Daily SMA20: 78.97
Daily SMA50: 78.62
Daily SMA100: 79.7
Daily SMA200: 80.53
Previous Daily High: 79.25
Previous Daily Low: 78.85
Previous Weekly High: 79.25
Previous Weekly Low: 77.91
Previous Monthly High: 79.85
Previous Monthly Low: 77.44
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 79.1
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 79
Daily Pivot Point S1: 78.8
Daily Pivot Point S2: 78.62
Daily Pivot Point S3: 78.4
Daily Pivot Point R1: 79.2
Daily Pivot Point R2: 79.42
Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.6
Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board’s 5th March meeting are due on Tuesday after the central bank, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting, unchanged yet again. The minute statement is less likely to be anything particularly market moving given previously conveyed dovish tone from the monetary policy statement and speeches from the RBA Governor are already factored in. So, the main focus will stay on how the central bank justifies its cash rate position as "more evenly balanced than previously."
Ahead of the release, analysts at Westpac say,
The minutes from the RBA Board’s 6 March meeting are due at 11:30 am Syd/8:30 am Sing/HK. The statement on the day was reasonably upbeat, repeating the forecast for the Australian economy to grow 3% in 2019, “supported by rising business investment, higher levels of spending on public infrastructure and increased employment.” The meeting was a day before Q4 GDP data that printed weaker than RBA expectations, which limits the value of the discussion on growth at least. Commentary on housing will also be noted with interest.
On the other hand, TD Securities was of the view that the release is more likely to be a non-event as it’s report said,
RBA Minutes for the 5 Mar Board meeting are released and unlikely to provide new news aside from the reiteration of balanced risks to the outlook.
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
In light of sluggish Australian GDP and dovish comments favoring a rate-cut from the RBA Governor Philip Lowe, any signals for future policy change and/or downside economic risk could drag the AUD/USD to Thursday’s low near 0.7040 with 0.7000 and 0.6980 being follow-on important supports. However, a repeat of the earlier emphasis on upbeat investment scenario and employment reports may as well help the pair to confront 0.7135-40 resistance confluence comprising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending trend-line stretched since January-end.
AUD/USD erases daily gains, settles below 0.71
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie trading at daily lows
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
The GBP/USD pair was on bid around 1.3250 during the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The pair differed from Monday-end declines as soft US housing market figures again drew market attention toward dovish FOMC. The pair dropped during Monday after the UK parliament rejected the idea of Tuesday’s voting on the Prime Minister Theresa May’s third Brexit proposal.
With the March month NAHB housing market index from the US remain unchanged at 62 despite 63 forecast, the US Dollar traders reassessed speculations calling for a dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appearance on Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to start two-day long monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and is mostly expected to trim its rate-hike predictions to only one for the year 2019 than December month’s call for two such lifts.
The British Pound (GBP) declined after the UK government official confirmed that the PM May’s third proposal for Brexit won’t be up for a vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday as it isn’t drastically different from previously turned down the idea. With this, PM May now has to visit Thursday’s EU summit without any deal and ask for a deadline extension from the regional leaders.
As per the latest report from the Guardian, the EU is ready to give three months of extension (as already signaled by PM May) to the UK’s March 29 deadline.
In addition to speculations concerning the FOMC and developments surrounding Brexit, British employment details and the US factory orders may offer intermediate market moves to pair traders.
The January month average earnings (3m/y) and unemployment rate join February month claimant count change release from the UK at 09:30 GMT. The average earnings may soften to 3.2% from 3.4% whereas earnings excluding bonus and unemployment rate could reprint earlier figures of 3.4% and 4.0% respectively. Also, claimant count change could decline to 3.7K from 14.2K.
Furthermore, the US factory orders growth may strengthen to 0.3% versus 0.1% prior.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
Immediate upward sloping trend-line joining lows since March 11 can act as adjacent support around 1.3200 round-figure, a break of which can recall 1.3180 and 1.3100 ahead of pushing sellers toward 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3030.
On the upside, 1.3280 and 1.3360 are likely nearby resistances to watch prior to targeting 1.3410 and 1.3500 during further advances.
The Ft reports that Theresa May has been told by senior colleagues she will have to set a timetable for her departure from Downing Street if she is to stand any chance of persuading Eurosceptic Tories to back her Brexit deal.
The Guardian has reported that the EU will formally agree on Brexit delay date this week.
More here: EU To Formally Agree On Brexit Delay Date This Week - Guardian
The Sun Newspaper has reported that Hardline Tory Brexiteers have threatened Theresa May that they will go on strike if she carries out her vow to delay Brexit by a year.
More here: DELAY BACKLASH
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Additional key levels
Today Last Price: 1.334
Today Daily change: 4 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.03%
Today Daily Open: 1.3336
Daily SMA20: 1.3282
Daily SMA50: 1.3262
Daily SMA100: 1.3302
Daily SMA200: 1.3187
Previous Daily High: 1.3374
Previous Daily Low: 1.3289
Previous Weekly High: 1.344
Previous Weekly Low: 1.3287
Previous Monthly High: 1.3341
Previous Monthly Low: 1.3069
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3341
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3322
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3292
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3249
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3208
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3376
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3417
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.346
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