RBA minutes overview
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board’s 5th Feb meeting minutes are due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, 0030 GMT, after the central bank, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting in February, unchanged yet again. The minute statement is less likely to be anything particularly markets moving today as release of quarterly monetary policy statement and speeches from the RBA Governor are already factored in. So, the main focus will stay with how the central bank justifies its cash rate position as "more evenly balanced than previously."
Analysts at Westpac say:
The RBA has “shifted the goalposts” and that has pushed the outright trading ranges higher. While we think they unlikely to cut rates, that will be the underpinning thematic for some time.
While comments from the analysts at Australia and New Zealand banking group explain more downside risks from the event:
“The minutes of the RBA meeting will reveal some of the downside risks that the bank highlighted in its last statement, however its impact will be limited given the recent publication of the SoMP. Of more interest will be the parliamentary testimony of the governor. In particular, his answers to any questions on the impact of credit tightening.”
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
Soured risk appetite recently dragged the antipodeans down and can weigh on the AUD/USD if the minutes provide a bearish tint on the economy. The pair may avail immediate trend-line support, at 0.7095, as adjacent rest during the declines towards 0.7055. However, minutes’ refrain to convey any downside risk to the Australian economy might not hesitate fueling the pair in direction to challenge the 0.7160, a break of which could open the door for 0.7200 round-figure to appear on the chart.
AUD/USD calm around 0.7130 ahead of RBA meeting minutes
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie trading below 0.7130 ahead of RBA
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
The NZD/USD pair shed majority of its gains by trading around 0.6850 near to the start of Tuesday’s Asian trading. The Kiwi and other antipodeans recently declined against the US Dollar (USD) in spite of a holiday in the US as investors rushed to greenback’s safe haven appeal amid likely threat to global auto industry from the US.
The Kiwi initially reacted to the weekend positives concerning the US-China trade deal. The pair increased to the near 0.6900 mark as traders weighed prospects of a trade pact between the world’s two largest economies on the US President Donald Trump’s weekend tweet praising the progress of the negotiations at Beijing.
The US-China optimism got additional love from NZD/USD buyers after Reuters reported that the New Zealand PM Jacinda Arden said in a press conference that NZ and China relations are `robust and mature'.
However, the moves couldn’t last long on Monday in spite President’s day holiday in the US as speculations grew that the Department of Commerce was to submit a report to the White House that could convey auto imports as a threat to the US national security. Global markets took note of this as a possible threat to the macro auto industry, especially to the EU, and rushed to the USD in search of risk safety. The move also negatively affected antipodeans.
It should be noted that the US has previously indicated to levy fresh tariffs on the EU car imports that didn’t go well to the relationship between the US and the EU.
NZD/USD: Technical Analysis
The NZD/USD pair is presently near to an upward sloping trend-line connecting lows marked since Wednesday last-week, at 0.6840. The pair needs to slid under 0.36840 in order to revisit 0.6800 and 0.6770 supports.
Alternatively, 0.6890 and 0.6905 are likely nearby resistances for the pair to clear ahead of looking at the 0.6935 resistance-line that joins highs marked since December.
The US markets were closed on Monday for President's day but that didn't stop the optimism circulating around trading floors in Asia and European markets as China and the US seek to conclude negotiations this week ahead of the cut off line imposed by Trump for 1st March where trade tariffs will be raised if a solution, or at least, an extension is not agreed in Washington this week.
Indeed, the price of oil will very much depend on the outcome of this trade dispute and bulls are betting on a positive outcome that should encourage demand for the black gold. The price of oil had been consolidating for the most part and oscillated between $55.73 and $56.32bbls.
From a technical standpoint, the price is back into the rising wedge, by the skin of its teeth mind you. to really convince, there needs to be a test of the upside of the wedge’s resistance and on the way to R2 located at 57.22. However, if prices drop back below the rising wedge’s support line, a break of 51.50 and the 27th Jan fractal low will open a run to 50.63 as the last defence for 50 the figure, and 7th Jan swing high at 49.96. On the wide, the bottom of the prior trend is down at 42.54 (top of reverse H&S head).
AUD/USD daily chart
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
AUD/USD 30-minute chart
Additional key levels
Today Last Price: 0.713
Today Daily change: -12 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.17%
Today Daily Open: 0.7142
Daily SMA20: 0.7152
Daily SMA50: 0.7138
Daily SMA100: 0.7162
Daily SMA200: 0.7273
Previous Daily High: 0.7149
Previous Daily Low: 0.7079
Previous Weekly High: 0.7149
Previous Weekly Low: 0.7053
Previous Monthly High: 0.7296
Previous Monthly Low: 0.6684
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7122
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7106
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7098
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7053
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7028
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7168
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7193
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7238
Data source: FX Street
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