The AUD/JPY hourly chart shows a downside break of the ascending triangle - a bearish continuation pattern - which indicates a continuation of the sell-off from the recent high of 82.65. Accordingly, the pair looks set to re-test 80.00 (psychological level).
The ascending triangle breakdown adds credence to the short-term bearish view put forward by the downward sloping 5-day and 10-day moving averages (MA).
Spot Rate: 80.46
Daily High: 80.55
Daily Low: 80.44
R1: 80.63 (June 19 low)
R2: 80.85 (5-day moving average)
R3: 81.61 (10-day moving average)
S1: 80.22 (previous day's low)
S2: 80.00 (psychological level)
S3: 79.21 (Jan 2016 low)
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence fell from previous 3.9% to -2.3% in August
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence fell from previous 3.9% to -2.3% in August...
China unperturbed by trade war at the street level - Reuters Poll
According to a poll by Reuters, Chinese residents at the street level are largely unbothered by US President Trump's bluster and swapping of trade war...
According to a poll by Reuters, Chinese residents at the street level are largely unbothered by US President Trump's bluster and swapping of trade war rhetoric with China, though some mixed feelings on exactly how China should respond to the US.
"Reuters talked to a cross section of 50 people, mainly from the two cities, about how concerned they are about the trade war, what they think Beijing’s response would be, and whether they think Chinese people should boycott American products in retaliation.
The interviews showed there is no palpable sense of crisis or panic yet. There is division and confusion over how China should respond to Trump, with some arguing that Beijing should strike back at American interests but others saying they didn’t know what could be done.
But perhaps most worrying for American businesses selling in China, a significant minority of the people interviewed – 14, or 28 percent - want to stop buying American products now, and some say they are already boycotting anything made in the U.S. Others said they would continue to buy American but that could change in the future.
-Asked whether they were worried about the trade war, only 11 of the 50 (22 percent) said they were, and 39 (or 78 percent) said they weren’t concerned.
-Asked what Beijing should do in response to Trump’s punitive tariffs, 19 (or 38 percent) said that it should strike back hard. The rest came up with various responses, including a refocus on development of the domestic economy, building other export markets, while 8 (or 16 percent) said they had no idea what the government should do.
-Asked whether they would stop buying U.S. products, 14 said they would, 31 said they wouldn’t (some indicated their views could change if the trade war intensifies), and five didn’t have a view.
The straw poll’s sample is very small and clearly not scientific. The interviews were also conducted in a country where people are often guarded and may well not let foreign media know their real views. Any individual’s comments deemed inappropriate – criticism of Xi would fall into this category – could lead to trouble with the authorities."
AUD/JPY cycling around 80.50 as bulls await inspiration
The AUD/JPY is continuing to cycle around the 80.50 for this week after broader markets halted their flight into safety last week on fears of Turkish ...
The Aussie sees little reason to run against the JPY as traders await meaningful data.
With market tensions remaining close to the surface, traders are keeping one foot in the Yen door.
The AUD/JPY is continuing to cycle around the 80.50 for this week after broader markets halted their flight into safety last week on fears of Turkish contagion, but the rebound in market sentiment has seen little favour given to the Aussie as bulls have little reason to buy.
The Australian Business Conditions Index softened to a reading of 12 this week compared to the previous period's printing of 15, and Aussie traders are awaiting Thursday's Aussie employment figures, with buyers bracing for a minor upwards tick in the seasonally-adjusted Unemployment Rate from 5.5% to 5.6%, but a flubbed reading of Wednesday's q/q Wage Price Index (forecast 0.6%, last 0.5%) due at 01:30 GMT today could see sentiment towards the battered AUD soften ahead of tomorrow's jobs report.
On the Yen side, JPY traders are looking towards the latest round of Japan's Trade Balance, due very late Wednesday at 23:50 GMT; Japan's Merchandise Trade Balance is expected to contract sharply to ¥-50.0 billion over the previous period's revised ¥720.0 billion reading, fueled in part by a projected jump in Imports (forecast 14.4%, last 2.6%).
The Japanese Yen remains the safe-haven of choice for much of the broader market, and the Aussie can expect to continue to struggle against the JPY as market tensions over brewing trade wars and US-Turkey frictions continue.
AUD/JPY levels to watch
Support for the AUD/JPY pair is thin after knocking into a 22-month low, and if bulls can't get their feet under them quickly then the way lies open for further declines into a broad resistance zone from 2016's bottom patterns, ranging from 76.75 all the way to 70.30. On the buyers' side, last week's high of 82.80 represents a significant barrier before resistance from recent consolidation just beneath the 84.00 handle, while the AUD/JPY has spent most of 2018 capped by 84.50.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: bulls looking to hold 111.00
A sluggish Kiwi sees little bullish rebound against the Greenback after last week's fear-induced decline.
A thin calendar for the NZD this week sees market sentiment largely in the driver's seat.
Buyers are struggling to develop wheels under a bullish correction from 0.6550 as technical indicators bleed out their oversold signals.
NZD/USD Chart, 15-Minute
0.6566 (current day low)
0.6557 (current week low)
0.6500 (major technical level)
0.6610 (current week high)
0.6684 (61.8% Fibo retracement level)
0.6762 (previous week high)
Colombia Trade Balance declined to $-719M in June from previous $-638M
Colombia Trade Balance declined to $-719M in June from previous $-638M...
Colombia Industrial ouput (YoY) below forecasts (3.2%) in June: Actual (1.3%)
Colombia Industrial ouput (YoY) below forecasts (3.2%) in June: Actual (1.3%)...
Turkey s Erdogan to boycott US electronics - Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced on Tuesday plans to boycott US electronics in retaliation for tariffs from US President Trump that doubled ...
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced on Tuesday plans to boycott US electronics in retaliation for tariffs from US President Trump that doubled levies against Turkish products, heightening fears of contagion risk that could spread from Turkey to global marketplaces.
"The lira has lost more than 40 percent this year and crashed to an all-time low of 7.24 to the dollar on Monday, hit by worries over Erdogan’s calls for lower borrowing costs and by worsening ties with the United States, a major NATO ally.
It was supported by news of a planned conference call on Thursday in which the finance minister will seek to reassure investors concerned by Erdogan’s influence over the economy and his resistance to interest rate hikes to tackle double-digit inflation.
Erdogan says Turkey is the target of an economic war, and has made repeated calls for Turks to sell their dollars and euros to shore up the national currency.
“Together with our people, we will stand decisively against the dollar, forex prices, inflation and interest rates. We will protect our economic independence by being tight knit together,” he told members of his AK Party in a speech.
The United States imposed sanctions on two Turkish government ministers over the trial on terrorism charges of U.S. evangelical pastor Andrew Brunson in Turkey, and last week Washington raised tariffs on Turkish metal exports.
The White House said on Tuesday President Donald Trump was frustrated that Turkey had not released Brunson.
“The president has a great deal of frustration on the fact that Pastor Brunson has not been released as well as the fact that other U.S. citizens and employees of diplomatic facilities have not been released,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told a briefing.
A White House official said the United States was warning more economic pressures may be in store for Turkey if it refuses to release Brunson."
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: pullback from 12-month low losing steam
The Sterling is bouncing against the safe-haven Yen this week as market fears over Turkey contagion continue to subside.
Trade war angst and Brexit concerns continue to hang close at hand, and risk-on momentum remains limited.
A 12-month low has been etched into the Guppy, and buyers are limited as technical indicators middle within a lackluster bullish correction.
GBP/JPY Chart, 15-Minute
141.00 (previous day low)
140.23 (current week low)
140.00 (major technical barrier)
142.45 (current week high)
144.50 (518.% Fibo retracement level)
147.13 (two-week high)
AUD/USD Review: bullish rebound remains thin at 20-month lows
The AUD/USD pairing is trading into 0.7240 after bottoming out at a new 20-month low of 0.7223 on Tuesday as the US Dollar resumed its march up the ch...
The Aussie is breaking into a fresh 20-month low as the US Dollar resumes its climb.
Aussie data due for Wednesday is unlikely to see much action as traders await Thursday's Australian employment numbers.
The AUD/USD pairing is trading into 0.7240 after bottoming out at a new 20-month low of 0.7223 on Tuesday as the US Dollar resumed its march up the charts across the broader FX space.
Aussie traders are looking up from the bottom of a steep slide as Wednesday sees another round of the Westpac Consumer Confidence survey, due early at 00:30 GMT. Consumer confidence last clocked in at 3.9%, while the q/q Wage Price Index, dropping at 01:30 GMT, is forecast to print at 0.6%, slightly above the previous reading of 0.5%.
AUD bulls are unlikely to be moved by Wednesday's economic data as they await Thursday's showing of the Australian jobs report, where the seasonally-adjusted Unemployment rate is forecast to move from 5.4% to 5.5%, while the Participation Rate is seen declining slightly from 65.7% to 65.6%.
With a middling economy and sluggish growth metrics, little intrinsic momentum is found for the AUD as the interest divergence between the Aussie and the Greenback continues to widen, and the Aussie finds itself at the mercy of broader market sentiment which has turned increasingly pro-Dollar and the AUD is on pace to close lower against the USD for a sixth month out of the last seven.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie is looking primed for a bullish correction sagging into range of setting a two-year low with technical indicators buried firmly into oversold territory, but falling knives threaten most hands as Aussie traders await a meaningful trigger to begin piling back into the AUD.
AUD/USD Chart, 15-Minute
0.7234 (current day low)
0.7223 (current week low; major technical bottom)
0.7117 (S2 weekly pivot)
0.7292 (currrent week high)
0.7365 (61.8% Fibo retracement level)
0.7452 (previous week high)
Canada considering steel safeguard against US tariffs - Reuters
As reported by Reuters, Canada announced on Tuesday that they are considering a safeguard measure against US President Trump's steel and aluminum tari...
As reported by Reuters, Canada announced on Tuesday that they are considering a safeguard measure against US President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs.
"Finance Minister Bill Morneau said a 15-day consultation period will be used to look at the harm or threat of harm to seven steel categories, including steel plate, rebar, energy tubular product, hot rolled sheet, pre-painted steel, stainless steel wire and wire rod.
“Our government believes the tariffs levied by the United States represent an exceptional circumstance, and that’s why provisional safeguards are being considered,” Morneau told a news conference at steelmaker ArcelorMittal’s Dofasco plant in Hamilton, Ontario.
“If evidence gathered during our consultations points to harm or threat of harm to Canadian producers, we will apply provisional safeguards in an expeditious manner and refer the issue to the Canadian International Trade Tribunal for inquiry.”
The safeguards, limiting steel supplies, are a blow to Canada’s oil sector, which has struggled to compete on costs and profitability with the United States, said Tom Whalen, chief executive of the Petroleum Services Association of Canada.
Higher costs of steel products, used to drill wells and build derricks and pressure pumps, would add to that competition gap, and Ottawa should compensate companies that are hurt by the safeguards, Whalen said.
The European Union announced its own safeguards in July, a combination of quotas and tariffs on 23 steel product categories."
Crude Oil WTI Technical Analysis: In search of direction - Bears eyeing a break below $66.30 a barrel
Resistance 1: 67.16 June 14 high
Resistance 2: 67.72 June 26 low
Resistance 3: 67.95 swing high
Resistance 4: 68.30 supply/demand level
Resistance 5: 69.00 figure
Resistance 6: 69.44 June 25 high
Resistance 7: 70.00 figure
Resistance 8: 70.53 May 24 low
Resistance 9: 71.19 May 23 low
Resistance 10: 72.13 July 6 low
Resistance 11: 73.00 figure
Support 1: 66.30-66.53 July 18 swing low and June 20 high
Support 2: 65.71, June 22 low
Support 3: 65.00 figure
Support 4: 64.60 May 28 low
Support 5: 64.00 figure
Support 6: 63.63 June 11 low
Support 7: 62.40 June 18 low
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